Positive market outlook for 2005
based on the article above, i dont really understand where they are coming from, even though ever sentences make sense. But the thing I notice about these interviewee were:
1. They are knowlegable enough.
2. Everything is based on researched facts and assumed experience.
3. There is no conclusion. Everything questions are answered with information which close no door. In one instance, star panel commented on CIMB representative for being imbalanced in terms of its prediction for KLCI and its suggestion for a bullish market. He reiterated by saying:
"Okay, that is a pure, fundamental target based on EPS (earnings per share) growth and on PE valuation. As we know, the market can over-shoot the valuations. The momentum can drive it higher." This is just an opened answer.
1. Weakening US Dollar - many financial system cannot withstand sudden drop in US Dollar. (I think becoz calculations are based on USD)
3. China - its economy is slowing down.
One thing that i learned is that the big players are expected to be foreign fund managers. The fund managers rely on investment banker for money is thus is affected by high interest rate.
The one conclusion they gave was that KLCI will hit 1000 benchmark for the first quarter of 2005. and drop again in the second quarter because of rising interest rate.
One thing about these people (fund managers), they seem to have a lot of information.. and i hate reading it because no conclusion one.. unless they tell you buy this one sell that one.. wait ... they are great lecturers and story tellers. Maybe they know too much and just don't know where to start. For this kind of people, we need to give them specific questions, not "what do you think of the outlook of 2005?"
Bullish + china + interest rates + liquidity + US dollar + GDP + momentum + risks = answer.
if there is any stock that has the word "china"; chinadoll, chinalens,chinaTat, the demand will increase.