if you stood by justice, it is not necessary to become a policeman..
seemingly.., if you love someone, it isn't necessary to marry that person.
Friday, January 28, 2005
Wednesday, January 26, 2005
Allah's caught in the picture..
There is a circulation that the satellite caught an image of wording Allah(in Arabic) as formation of the wave...
http://www.oldkopitiam.com/kopitiam/read.php?f=3&i=176858&t=176858
http://www.oldkopitiam.com/kopitiam/read.php?f=3&i=176858&t=176858
Sunday, January 23, 2005
The passion of christ
I just watched the show the passion of christ.. good show.. the best part is the beating part .. for one thing.. i watched it closely because I have no idea about Jesus until now.. so I was trying to put piece and pieces together..
After the movie, I did a research and was done with some enlightenedment.
According to some sources:
1. Jesus is a messenger of God which himself is god and thus as a man, he succumbed to all temptations (such as sex) and was ignored, unappreciated, unloved and misunderstood even though he is a good man and always love everyone.
Now this is killer..
1a.he loves everyone, man and woman, so he couldn't choose a wife, because he has no bias, he might as well don't marry. So when you marry someone means you loved someone more and thus you would inevitably have to have some bias because you choose to love someone more than other people. In other words, god is not married, otherwise he is bias.
1b. Even though he is good and people still don't like him and eventually killed him. The teaching of this is that people choose their own god and not the real god coz people are bias according to their own temptation. This is quite true as the Roman worship different gods. So Roman are the peak of human civilization 2000 years ago and then came Jesus and then it was destroyed.
2. When he was about to be cruxifixion. He prayed to forgive those who had caused him pain with reason that people don't know what they are doing. This proves that "God forgive you because you are naive to your action"
3. Jesus was cruxified between two other criminals, as a benchmark to let people see the differences. Two other criminal were subjected to "breaking of the legs" before they died, while jesus died just before that. After he uttered "It is fullfilled now!" then he left. This shows that he could have died easily when he chosed to suffered the beatings of man. He chosed to sufferred all the way until he finally pull the plug himself. It is particularly interesting that the movie focuses on the beating part..to show the defiant of human and the strength of god that will always be with you. Had he not went through those suffering, it would not serve the purpose of his existence, to show love on behalf of god as a human. Just like Gandhi said, reiteriate with love than hatred. Jesus show you how it can be done using a human body that is vunerable to all suffering. In movie, some Roman guard believed when Jesus died pre-maturely.
4. The movie ended with temple being destroyed by earthquake. And all those high priest finally believed in Jesus because Jesus mentioned he could destroy all temple and rebuild them in 3 days. It is also interested to note that earthquake are God's doing as lesson to point out that people are heading the wrong direction. In the recent Asian Tsunami crisis, the worst hit area Aceh of Indonesia, had a famous picture.. a mosque left among all debris.
This is a message where those people had ignored the mosque that people are just putting up faces to go the mosque while in fact they are not doing good. Mosque cannot save you from disaster. The mosque is still here while you are gone. You failed to withhold god, or you have failed because you are using god for your own purpose.
Hebrew (Jews) are strong people, they are always being bullied and evetually win. Moses (B.C) was to take on they Egypt empire. Jesus to take one the Roman empire.
I am sorry if any of you find this abusive... this is just my thought. Long live free speech on the Internet.
After the movie, I did a research and was done with some enlightenedment.
According to some sources:
1. Jesus is a messenger of God which himself is god and thus as a man, he succumbed to all temptations (such as sex) and was ignored, unappreciated, unloved and misunderstood even though he is a good man and always love everyone.
Now this is killer..
1a.he loves everyone, man and woman, so he couldn't choose a wife, because he has no bias, he might as well don't marry. So when you marry someone means you loved someone more and thus you would inevitably have to have some bias because you choose to love someone more than other people. In other words, god is not married, otherwise he is bias.
1b. Even though he is good and people still don't like him and eventually killed him. The teaching of this is that people choose their own god and not the real god coz people are bias according to their own temptation. This is quite true as the Roman worship different gods. So Roman are the peak of human civilization 2000 years ago and then came Jesus and then it was destroyed.
2. When he was about to be cruxifixion. He prayed to forgive those who had caused him pain with reason that people don't know what they are doing. This proves that "God forgive you because you are naive to your action"
3. Jesus was cruxified between two other criminals, as a benchmark to let people see the differences. Two other criminal were subjected to "breaking of the legs" before they died, while jesus died just before that. After he uttered "It is fullfilled now!" then he left. This shows that he could have died easily when he chosed to suffered the beatings of man. He chosed to sufferred all the way until he finally pull the plug himself. It is particularly interesting that the movie focuses on the beating part..to show the defiant of human and the strength of god that will always be with you. Had he not went through those suffering, it would not serve the purpose of his existence, to show love on behalf of god as a human. Just like Gandhi said, reiteriate with love than hatred. Jesus show you how it can be done using a human body that is vunerable to all suffering. In movie, some Roman guard believed when Jesus died pre-maturely.
4. The movie ended with temple being destroyed by earthquake. And all those high priest finally believed in Jesus because Jesus mentioned he could destroy all temple and rebuild them in 3 days. It is also interested to note that earthquake are God's doing as lesson to point out that people are heading the wrong direction. In the recent Asian Tsunami crisis, the worst hit area Aceh of Indonesia, had a famous picture.. a mosque left among all debris.
This is a message where those people had ignored the mosque that people are just putting up faces to go the mosque while in fact they are not doing good. Mosque cannot save you from disaster. The mosque is still here while you are gone. You failed to withhold god, or you have failed because you are using god for your own purpose.
Hebrew (Jews) are strong people, they are always being bullied and evetually win. Moses (B.C) was to take on they Egypt empire. Jesus to take one the Roman empire.
I am sorry if any of you find this abusive... this is just my thought. Long live free speech on the Internet.
Earning your keep
Yesterday on the Sun newspaper was presented an article about pay increment and bonuses..
Statistic given:
1. The average salary increment is 6%
2. I.T sector has higher rate of 7.3%
3. Oil and Gas industry
Junior management = 29% higher than the general market
Senior management = 26% higher than the general market
4. F0r 2005, increment is expected at 6.1%
5. For 2005, real estate and customer product sector are expected to have pay rise of 7%
6. IN 2004, 95% of 215 companies surveyed raised the executive staff salary. it was 89% in 2003.
7. In 2004, 96% of 215 companies surveyed raised the non-executive staff salary. it was 87% in 2003.
8. Before 1997, salary increased by average of 9.5%
9. In 2004, contractual and discretionary bonuses for executive was 2.95 months (2.78 months in 2003)
10. In 2004, contractual and discreationary bonues for non exec was 2.82 months (2.38 months in 2003)
11. Last year(2004) average rate for executives increment is 5.9% compared to 6% in 2003.
12. Last year(2004) average rate for non executive increment is 5.3% compared to 5.7% last year.
13. Malaysia economy expected to grow by 7% in 2005.
14. In Malaysia, average of 5.4% - 6.3% for salary increment given out by Malaysian company for 2004, higher than 3% to 5% in 2003.
15. In Singapore 2004, only 3.2% to 3.7% for salary increment given out by companies and in Hong Kong is 1.3% to 2%.
16. In the past, 80% to 90% of remuneration package comprised of fixed salary while the rest is bonus. Now it is 70:30.
Statistic given:
1. The average salary increment is 6%
2. I.T sector has higher rate of 7.3%
3. Oil and Gas industry
Junior management = 29% higher than the general market
Senior management = 26% higher than the general market
4. F0r 2005, increment is expected at 6.1%
5. For 2005, real estate and customer product sector are expected to have pay rise of 7%
6. IN 2004, 95% of 215 companies surveyed raised the executive staff salary. it was 89% in 2003.
7. In 2004, 96% of 215 companies surveyed raised the non-executive staff salary. it was 87% in 2003.
8. Before 1997, salary increased by average of 9.5%
9. In 2004, contractual and discretionary bonuses for executive was 2.95 months (2.78 months in 2003)
10. In 2004, contractual and discreationary bonues for non exec was 2.82 months (2.38 months in 2003)
11. Last year(2004) average rate for executives increment is 5.9% compared to 6% in 2003.
12. Last year(2004) average rate for non executive increment is 5.3% compared to 5.7% last year.
13. Malaysia economy expected to grow by 7% in 2005.
14. In Malaysia, average of 5.4% - 6.3% for salary increment given out by Malaysian company for 2004, higher than 3% to 5% in 2003.
15. In Singapore 2004, only 3.2% to 3.7% for salary increment given out by companies and in Hong Kong is 1.3% to 2%.
16. In the past, 80% to 90% of remuneration package comprised of fixed salary while the rest is bonus. Now it is 70:30.
customer loyalty
Sometime around last week, I had an accident which I actually ramped two cars from behind. I lost a substantial amount of Ringgit as I am not a rich perosn.
My car was pretty okay, the front bumper was a little wreck and front case was a little dislocated.. The worst damage is done to my car plate.. I sent it for fixing yesterday and got over with RM120 service.. The job was well done by some mechanic who specializes in Volvo services. He told me he is no expert but could do away with some trick. Anyway, the output was okay... One of the question I repeatedly asked him was how good my front bumper now, would it be as strong. ? He gave me a yes and no answer.. Suddenly, I realized that bumper is really to protect your engine and etc..without it, my engine would have been damaged and I would suffer greater lost. But since he gave such good service (probably is only for first timer), I was kind of considering switching my regular service from Cycle & Carriage over here because partly it is nearer to my place.
I still undecided as I couldn't find a good reason to quit Cycle & Carriage apart from its slightly more expensive treatment. But Cycle & Carriage does give a good documented account of the service done to the car and etc.. One of the thing that hold me back is the kind of strategy Cycle & Carriage used to keep customer loyalty. They actually had someone called me up to chit chat with me... via surveying.. She asked me a lot of stupid question ... Now I realized they are trying to create loyalty by making a presence in your mind.. Great Eastern did the same thing.. of course surveying might be helping them to solve some problems, but I dont think that is the main purpose. See, surveying is different from customer service which actually helps customer on real time.. Surveying is more like a marketing channel, which you will be introduced to things which they want you to know ... for instance;
"Our company recently implemented 2 minutes customer service response, how affective you find it ?".. you would probably say "ok". But aim is to let you know that they are doing something to be better customer-oriented.
Another thing I realized.. recently PLUS decided to hike the price.. they created a lot of issues in the newspapers.. Then suddenly the news is as calm as dead sea. I heard that some investigation revealed that PLUS is actually making millions of Ringgit which they claimed otherwise as reason for the hike. Anway, the story is that parliment has ordered a halt on the debate and the hike still go on.
Then yesterday nite, PLUS appear on TV ads.. with theme song "Stand by you" (originated from stand by me).. The ads features PLUS working day and nite to serve its customer. This is brilliant, somehow I was caught there too.. It was able to make you forget about the whole hiking issue, where you see smiling faces proejcted from PLUS and the song they are sing to you.. I am not sure, I am going to see it again.. But it works.
My car was pretty okay, the front bumper was a little wreck and front case was a little dislocated.. The worst damage is done to my car plate.. I sent it for fixing yesterday and got over with RM120 service.. The job was well done by some mechanic who specializes in Volvo services. He told me he is no expert but could do away with some trick. Anyway, the output was okay... One of the question I repeatedly asked him was how good my front bumper now, would it be as strong. ? He gave me a yes and no answer.. Suddenly, I realized that bumper is really to protect your engine and etc..without it, my engine would have been damaged and I would suffer greater lost. But since he gave such good service (probably is only for first timer), I was kind of considering switching my regular service from Cycle & Carriage over here because partly it is nearer to my place.
I still undecided as I couldn't find a good reason to quit Cycle & Carriage apart from its slightly more expensive treatment. But Cycle & Carriage does give a good documented account of the service done to the car and etc.. One of the thing that hold me back is the kind of strategy Cycle & Carriage used to keep customer loyalty. They actually had someone called me up to chit chat with me... via surveying.. She asked me a lot of stupid question ... Now I realized they are trying to create loyalty by making a presence in your mind.. Great Eastern did the same thing.. of course surveying might be helping them to solve some problems, but I dont think that is the main purpose. See, surveying is different from customer service which actually helps customer on real time.. Surveying is more like a marketing channel, which you will be introduced to things which they want you to know ... for instance;
"Our company recently implemented 2 minutes customer service response, how affective you find it ?".. you would probably say "ok". But aim is to let you know that they are doing something to be better customer-oriented.
Another thing I realized.. recently PLUS decided to hike the price.. they created a lot of issues in the newspapers.. Then suddenly the news is as calm as dead sea. I heard that some investigation revealed that PLUS is actually making millions of Ringgit which they claimed otherwise as reason for the hike. Anway, the story is that parliment has ordered a halt on the debate and the hike still go on.
Then yesterday nite, PLUS appear on TV ads.. with theme song "Stand by you" (originated from stand by me).. The ads features PLUS working day and nite to serve its customer. This is brilliant, somehow I was caught there too.. It was able to make you forget about the whole hiking issue, where you see smiling faces proejcted from PLUS and the song they are sing to you.. I am not sure, I am going to see it again.. But it works.
Saturday, January 22, 2005
Ghost Protection in Hotel [Fowarded Email]
OK, here's some believes of the hoteliers:
Every single hotel, there shall be at least a permanent room which should be left vacant at all times. No matter how full the hotel is, they are not to sell that room(s) to any guest. It was said that specialroom was "reserved" for those "special visitors".
So, if you plan to stay in some hotel, always book in advance. Try to avoid walk in. If the receptionist told you there's no more room available, do not insist one anymore or try to bribe them to give you a room. If you do that, most of the time the room you have will be that "special room".
Sometimes those "special visitors" might go to other rooms also, so here's some tips on how to protect yourself:
Before entering your room, always knock on the door first, even you know the room is vacant.
After you enter the room, if you felt very cold suddenly and have "chicken spore", leave the room quietly immediately and go to reception to request to change room. Most of the time the receptionist will understand what's happening.
After you enter the room, immediately switch on all of the lights, and open the curtain to let the sun light in.
Before you go to bed, arrange your shoes so that one of them is upside down. Some say this is representing yin& yang to protect you while you're asleep.
Always leave at least a lamp on while you're sleeping, preferably the toilet's lamp.
If you're staying alone and they have give you a twin bed, do not sleep with the other bed vacant, try to put your things like luggage on the other bed before you sleep.
Have a Nice Day,
Calvin Yeoh
Every single hotel, there shall be at least a permanent room which should be left vacant at all times. No matter how full the hotel is, they are not to sell that room(s) to any guest. It was said that specialroom was "reserved" for those "special visitors".
So, if you plan to stay in some hotel, always book in advance. Try to avoid walk in. If the receptionist told you there's no more room available, do not insist one anymore or try to bribe them to give you a room. If you do that, most of the time the room you have will be that "special room".
Sometimes those "special visitors" might go to other rooms also, so here's some tips on how to protect yourself:
Before entering your room, always knock on the door first, even you know the room is vacant.
After you enter the room, if you felt very cold suddenly and have "chicken spore", leave the room quietly immediately and go to reception to request to change room. Most of the time the receptionist will understand what's happening.
After you enter the room, immediately switch on all of the lights, and open the curtain to let the sun light in.
Before you go to bed, arrange your shoes so that one of them is upside down. Some say this is representing yin& yang to protect you while you're asleep.
Always leave at least a lamp on while you're sleeping, preferably the toilet's lamp.
If you're staying alone and they have give you a twin bed, do not sleep with the other bed vacant, try to put your things like luggage on the other bed before you sleep.
Have a Nice Day,
Calvin Yeoh
Saturday, January 15, 2005
Future trading...
yesterday, i attended a free seminar on future trading by OSK Future & Securities Bhd. I managed to learn many things as I am new to this area..
The speaker; Mr. John Law gave as an introduction.. "how to make profit in the future market?" and he promptly answered : "based on charts you will get the answer.."
In future tradings.. you can trade in two ways..
1. up (buy down, sell up)
2. down (sell up, buy down)
He then said there are few ways future, which is known as FKLI (Future Kuala Lumpur Index) is based upon, one of them is KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index), which actually composes of 100 active stocks.
To be able to trade in direct stock market; which is known to them as the cash market (means actual market), you need huge capital, whereas over here there is no need because the fund managers are leveraging on many people to trade as one go in the real market. Therefore, futures' prices is either at premium or discount to the real market.
Who is interested in trading future ?
1. Hedgers - those who seek to minimize risks in their cash positions.
2. Speculators - those who risk capital in return for fast & substantial money.
You need to have a gameplan, and in doing that you need to categorize yourself either as long term or short term which is commonly known as day trader or position trader. Then he went on to say "only long term can make money, if you can risk losing some money, you are out of here!"
To be a good trader, you need to have 2 things:
1. Fundamental concept - economic concept
2. Skills - using tools
The most important thing abt the concept is liquidity.. and thus you need to know who are the main player in the real market.
1. Proprietary
2. Local vendors
3. Domestic retail
4. Oversea retail
5. Domestic institution
6. Foreign institution - This makes up the most percentage.
Then a participant went on and said "this coming months would have good movement due to liquidity coming in..." he cited the reason for being USD re peg to 3.30 - 3.50. (This means that Malaysian ringgit would be slightly stronger against USD, and foreign funds are coming in..)
Mr. John Law then gave us one trading example about buying long.(means buy and hope it go up)
10 Dec - Deposit margin of 5K
13 Dec - buy 1 FKLI Dec at 880.00
14 Dec - Sell 1 FKLI Dec at 900.00 (which means you gain 20 points)
Since 1 point is RM 50, thus you would earn RM 1k
less the commission you would get the actuall income. (commission are negotiable with the broker)
One thing to note that each unit for FKLI comes with short time frame for validity... I think one fo the reason to enforce liquidity... when your contract is expired, you are forced to liquiditize, unlike the stock market, stock owner might not want to sell out the share when it is making losses.
Therefore, coming back to the real market and the leveraging market... since 1 point is RM50, thus the actual cash in the market is actually 900.00 * RM50 = 45 K
One would need a minimum of RM 1750.00 as equity to play.
Smallest unit in FKLI is 0.50.
He then emphasized again "you need to have trading plan, which is capital preservation.." means dont buy everything at one shot.. in other words, dont follow your emotion. dont listen to rumours.
Every day has a 4 months contract ?? -> I am not sure what he meant by this.
How to predict the market?
1. Fundamental analysis.
1a. Macro point of view - Fund managers in the world look at the world as one stock market.
1b. Sentiment driven - people dare not buy at 800.00 (KLCI) but dare to buy at 900.00(KLCI)
1c. Localized support - there is an invisible hand in this market.
1d. Volatility
1e. Liquidity considerations - not just local but international as well.
2. Charts.
2a. Graphical illustration of the real market.
2b. Show trends
2c. History repeats itself.
3. Technical indicators
Tips
1. If line is going up.. then buy, if down then sell
2. Cut lost accordingly.
The key is to indentify either the trend is strong or weak, the graph could be going up but it might not be strong. THus you would need additional point of view to support your decision. For instance, if you notice a climbing curve, then probably you would magnify your analysis into 60 minutes point of view with combinations of "moving averages", if you notice than the higher resolution is showing linear trend (they called it non-trend), then it means the climbing is stable and you can buy.
The speaker then said "you need discipline to maintain this business.." means dont get over excited..
To analyse a moving trend - "moving averages"is a good tool.
To analyse a non-trend - "Oscillator"is a good tool.
The second speaker came in; Mr. Jimmy a.k.a CEO of OSK Futures and Securities.
He said:
1. To predict future direction, it is not abt understanding where the market ? you just need to know whether it is going up or down..
2. How would you mentally size up to take trade ?
2a. Know your objective : Make money
2b. Know how far you can go.
Then he showed us one exmple using a live analysis tools.. I think it is a Java written program ..pretty nice interface..
If at one at particular point, the FKLI is 920.00, you take a parrallel measurement and you find the following:
1. Max : 945.00
2. Min : 915.00
Then you apply the 3 most important analysis:
1. MACD
2. ADX
3. Moving averages - either 3 day line or 9 day line.
Then you decide how much you can lose and go for decision.
Conclusion:
1. Need to have game plan --> Strategy
2. Knowledge + discipline + patience -> Success.
3. Always think "what if?" that is why you need pre-determined strategy to help you out at critical moments.. becoz your thinking is usually slower.
Then he encourages us to subscripe for the analysis tool which is only RM 150 per monthly basis.
Finally, according to my friend Rick Teoh, this game is a zero sum game, where the investment will goes back to nothing.. in order for someone to make money, someone has to lose money. I think that you also need a lot of time and effort to enjoy this game.
The speaker; Mr. John Law gave as an introduction.. "how to make profit in the future market?" and he promptly answered : "based on charts you will get the answer.."
In future tradings.. you can trade in two ways..
1. up (buy down, sell up)
2. down (sell up, buy down)
He then said there are few ways future, which is known as FKLI (Future Kuala Lumpur Index) is based upon, one of them is KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index), which actually composes of 100 active stocks.
To be able to trade in direct stock market; which is known to them as the cash market (means actual market), you need huge capital, whereas over here there is no need because the fund managers are leveraging on many people to trade as one go in the real market. Therefore, futures' prices is either at premium or discount to the real market.
Who is interested in trading future ?
1. Hedgers - those who seek to minimize risks in their cash positions.
2. Speculators - those who risk capital in return for fast & substantial money.
You need to have a gameplan, and in doing that you need to categorize yourself either as long term or short term which is commonly known as day trader or position trader. Then he went on to say "only long term can make money, if you can risk losing some money, you are out of here!"
To be a good trader, you need to have 2 things:
1. Fundamental concept - economic concept
2. Skills - using tools
The most important thing abt the concept is liquidity.. and thus you need to know who are the main player in the real market.
1. Proprietary
2. Local vendors
3. Domestic retail
4. Oversea retail
5. Domestic institution
6. Foreign institution - This makes up the most percentage.
Then a participant went on and said "this coming months would have good movement due to liquidity coming in..." he cited the reason for being USD re peg to 3.30 - 3.50. (This means that Malaysian ringgit would be slightly stronger against USD, and foreign funds are coming in..)
Mr. John Law then gave us one trading example about buying long.(means buy and hope it go up)
10 Dec - Deposit margin of 5K
13 Dec - buy 1 FKLI Dec at 880.00
14 Dec - Sell 1 FKLI Dec at 900.00 (which means you gain 20 points)
Since 1 point is RM 50, thus you would earn RM 1k
less the commission you would get the actuall income. (commission are negotiable with the broker)
One thing to note that each unit for FKLI comes with short time frame for validity... I think one fo the reason to enforce liquidity... when your contract is expired, you are forced to liquiditize, unlike the stock market, stock owner might not want to sell out the share when it is making losses.
Therefore, coming back to the real market and the leveraging market... since 1 point is RM50, thus the actual cash in the market is actually 900.00 * RM50 = 45 K
One would need a minimum of RM 1750.00 as equity to play.
Smallest unit in FKLI is 0.50.
He then emphasized again "you need to have trading plan, which is capital preservation.." means dont buy everything at one shot.. in other words, dont follow your emotion. dont listen to rumours.
Every day has a 4 months contract ?? -> I am not sure what he meant by this.
How to predict the market?
1. Fundamental analysis.
1a. Macro point of view - Fund managers in the world look at the world as one stock market.
1b. Sentiment driven - people dare not buy at 800.00 (KLCI) but dare to buy at 900.00(KLCI)
1c. Localized support - there is an invisible hand in this market.
1d. Volatility
1e. Liquidity considerations - not just local but international as well.
2. Charts.
2a. Graphical illustration of the real market.
2b. Show trends
2c. History repeats itself.
3. Technical indicators
Tips
1. If line is going up.. then buy, if down then sell
2. Cut lost accordingly.
The key is to indentify either the trend is strong or weak, the graph could be going up but it might not be strong. THus you would need additional point of view to support your decision. For instance, if you notice a climbing curve, then probably you would magnify your analysis into 60 minutes point of view with combinations of "moving averages", if you notice than the higher resolution is showing linear trend (they called it non-trend), then it means the climbing is stable and you can buy.
The speaker then said "you need discipline to maintain this business.." means dont get over excited..
To analyse a moving trend - "moving averages"is a good tool.
To analyse a non-trend - "Oscillator"is a good tool.
The second speaker came in; Mr. Jimmy a.k.a CEO of OSK Futures and Securities.
He said:
1. To predict future direction, it is not abt understanding where the market ? you just need to know whether it is going up or down..
2. How would you mentally size up to take trade ?
2a. Know your objective : Make money
2b. Know how far you can go.
Then he showed us one exmple using a live analysis tools.. I think it is a Java written program ..pretty nice interface..
If at one at particular point, the FKLI is 920.00, you take a parrallel measurement and you find the following:
1. Max : 945.00
2. Min : 915.00
Then you apply the 3 most important analysis:
1. MACD
2. ADX
3. Moving averages - either 3 day line or 9 day line.
Then you decide how much you can lose and go for decision.
Conclusion:
1. Need to have game plan --> Strategy
2. Knowledge + discipline + patience -> Success.
3. Always think "what if?" that is why you need pre-determined strategy to help you out at critical moments.. becoz your thinking is usually slower.
Then he encourages us to subscripe for the analysis tool which is only RM 150 per monthly basis.
Finally, according to my friend Rick Teoh, this game is a zero sum game, where the investment will goes back to nothing.. in order for someone to make money, someone has to lose money. I think that you also need a lot of time and effort to enjoy this game.
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Disaster coming at 8 Feb 2005!
Extract:
The Tsunami happened in SW countries of China was predicted by the Chinese traditional farmer prediction system accurately. It also tell there is another one in NE countries of China (Japan and Korea) in 2005. Which is being confirmed by the geographical scientist already.
So, don't plan your trip to Korea or Japan in 2005. One more thing, I guess you may heard about the "White Dragon King" in Thailand, right? Michael's friend went to Thailand and visit him before 26 Dec. The White Dragon King asked her to leave Thai immediately as there is a disaster coming. So she left and escape from the disaster. However, he also asked her not to go outside and stay at home in HK on 8 Feb (Year 30th) after 9:00 pm. He said something bad will happen in HK at that period. Inform your families or friends if possible.
Actually in year 2000, certain group in the buddhism society already warned of disaster in 2004 (chinese calender), according to them, the damage would be much bigger ... the recent Tsunami is just really off-track. Anyway, if this article is for real, 8 Feb would be the last day of chinese calender 2004, and things could really get ugly if it hit Hong Kong and Korea (both celebrating chinese new year)...
asia map
The Tsunami happened in SW countries of China was predicted by the Chinese traditional farmer prediction system accurately. It also tell there is another one in NE countries of China (Japan and Korea) in 2005. Which is being confirmed by the geographical scientist already.
So, don't plan your trip to Korea or Japan in 2005. One more thing, I guess you may heard about the "White Dragon King" in Thailand, right? Michael's friend went to Thailand and visit him before 26 Dec. The White Dragon King asked her to leave Thai immediately as there is a disaster coming. So she left and escape from the disaster. However, he also asked her not to go outside and stay at home in HK on 8 Feb (Year 30th) after 9:00 pm. He said something bad will happen in HK at that period. Inform your families or friends if possible.
Actually in year 2000, certain group in the buddhism society already warned of disaster in 2004 (chinese calender), according to them, the damage would be much bigger ... the recent Tsunami is just really off-track. Anyway, if this article is for real, 8 Feb would be the last day of chinese calender 2004, and things could really get ugly if it hit Hong Kong and Korea (both celebrating chinese new year)...
asia map
Triangle of life - (Taken from the Internet)
This is very interesting.....do find the time to read it, it could save lives.Though long, this article is worth a read. Its high time we startlearning these survival skills as Malaysia should no longer be considered a nation free from natural catastrophe.
My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager ofthe American Rescue Team International (ARTI), the world's mostexperienced rescue team. The information in this article will savelives in an earthquake.I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescueteams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries,and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries. I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation (UNX051 -UNIENET) for two years. I have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, exceptfor simultaneous disasters.
In 1996 we made a film which proved my survival methodology to becorrect. The Turkish Federal Government, City of Istanbul, University ofIstanbul,Case Productions and ARTI cooperated to film this practical, scientific test. We collapsed a school and a home with 20 mannequins inside. Ten mannequins did "duck and cover," and ten mannequins I used in my "triangle of life"survival method. After the simulated earthquake collapse we crawled through the rubble and entered the building to film and document the results.
The film, in which I practised my survival techniques underdirectly observable, scientific conditions, relevant to buildingcollapse, showed there would have been zero percent survival forthose doing duck and cover.There would likely have been 100 % survivability for people using mymethod of the "triangle of life."
This film has been seen by millions of viewers on television in Turkey and the rest of Europe, and it was seen in the USA, Canada and Latin American the TV program Real TV.The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in MexicoCity during the 1985 earthquake.
Every child was under their desk.Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones. They could havesurvived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene,unnecessary and I wondered why the children were not in the aisles. I didn't at the time know that the children were told to hide under something.Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilingsfalling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects,leaving a space or void next to them. This space is what I call the"triangle of life".The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probabilitythat the person who is using this void for safety will not be injured.The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the"triangles" you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the mostcommon shape, you will see, in a collapsed building. They areeverywhere.
I trained the Fire Department of Trujillo (population 750,000) in how to survive, take care of their families, and to rescue others in earthquakes.The chief of rescue in the Trujillo Fire Department is a professor atTrujillo University. He accompanied me everywhere. He gave personal testimony: "My name is Roberto Rosales. I am Chief of Rescue inTrujillo.When I was 11 years old, I was trapped inside of a collapsed building. My entrapment occurred during the earthquake of 1972 thatkilled 70,000 people. I survived in the "triangle of life" thatexisted next to my brother's motorcycle. My friends who got under the bed and under desks were crushed to death [he gives more details, names, addressesetc.]...I am the living example of the "triangle of life". My dead friends are the example of "duck and cover".
TIPS DOUG COPP PROVIDES:
1) Everyone who simply "ducks and covers" WHEN BUILDINGS COLLAPSE is crushed to death -- Every time, without exception. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are always crushed.
2) Cats, dogs and babies all naturally often curl up in the foetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/ survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next to an object, next to a sofa,next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.
3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. The reason is simple: the wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.
4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed. Hotels can achieve a much greater survival rate in earthquakes, simply by posting a sign on the back of the door of every room, telling occupants to lie down on the floor, next to the bottom of the bed during an earthquake.
5) If an earthquake happens while you are watching television and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the foetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.
6) Everybody who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the door jam falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!
7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different "moment of frequency" (they swing separately from the main part of the building). The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads. They are horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn't collapse, stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by screaming, fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not damaged.
8) Get Near the Outer Walls Of Buildings Or Outside Of Them If Possible It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked.
9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of theirvehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles, says the author. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had columns falldirectly across them.
10)I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper. I hope this useful information is never needed.....
My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager ofthe American Rescue Team International (ARTI), the world's mostexperienced rescue team. The information in this article will savelives in an earthquake.I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescueteams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries,and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries. I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation (UNX051 -UNIENET) for two years. I have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, exceptfor simultaneous disasters.
In 1996 we made a film which proved my survival methodology to becorrect. The Turkish Federal Government, City of Istanbul, University ofIstanbul,Case Productions and ARTI cooperated to film this practical, scientific test. We collapsed a school and a home with 20 mannequins inside. Ten mannequins did "duck and cover," and ten mannequins I used in my "triangle of life"survival method. After the simulated earthquake collapse we crawled through the rubble and entered the building to film and document the results.
The film, in which I practised my survival techniques underdirectly observable, scientific conditions, relevant to buildingcollapse, showed there would have been zero percent survival forthose doing duck and cover.There would likely have been 100 % survivability for people using mymethod of the "triangle of life."
This film has been seen by millions of viewers on television in Turkey and the rest of Europe, and it was seen in the USA, Canada and Latin American the TV program Real TV.The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in MexicoCity during the 1985 earthquake.
Every child was under their desk.Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones. They could havesurvived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene,unnecessary and I wondered why the children were not in the aisles. I didn't at the time know that the children were told to hide under something.Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilingsfalling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects,leaving a space or void next to them. This space is what I call the"triangle of life".The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probabilitythat the person who is using this void for safety will not be injured.The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the"triangles" you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the mostcommon shape, you will see, in a collapsed building. They areeverywhere.
I trained the Fire Department of Trujillo (population 750,000) in how to survive, take care of their families, and to rescue others in earthquakes.The chief of rescue in the Trujillo Fire Department is a professor atTrujillo University. He accompanied me everywhere. He gave personal testimony: "My name is Roberto Rosales. I am Chief of Rescue inTrujillo.When I was 11 years old, I was trapped inside of a collapsed building. My entrapment occurred during the earthquake of 1972 thatkilled 70,000 people. I survived in the "triangle of life" thatexisted next to my brother's motorcycle. My friends who got under the bed and under desks were crushed to death [he gives more details, names, addressesetc.]...I am the living example of the "triangle of life". My dead friends are the example of "duck and cover".
TIPS DOUG COPP PROVIDES:
1) Everyone who simply "ducks and covers" WHEN BUILDINGS COLLAPSE is crushed to death -- Every time, without exception. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are always crushed.
2) Cats, dogs and babies all naturally often curl up in the foetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/ survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next to an object, next to a sofa,next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.
3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. The reason is simple: the wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.
4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed. Hotels can achieve a much greater survival rate in earthquakes, simply by posting a sign on the back of the door of every room, telling occupants to lie down on the floor, next to the bottom of the bed during an earthquake.
5) If an earthquake happens while you are watching television and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the foetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.
6) Everybody who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the door jam falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!
7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different "moment of frequency" (they swing separately from the main part of the building). The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads. They are horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn't collapse, stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by screaming, fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not damaged.
8) Get Near the Outer Walls Of Buildings Or Outside Of Them If Possible It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked.
9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of theirvehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles, says the author. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had columns falldirectly across them.
10)I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper. I hope this useful information is never needed.....
Tuesday, January 11, 2005
bang! there i go..
yesterday morning.. i was driving along Kampung Tunku heading for Jalan Templer... as I was approaching a descending slope... I notice a bottleneck in front, some less than 500 meters away... My foot was on the break, but due to the slope, the effect was rather slow... But actually I paid attention to cars on the other side of the road and then suddenly, i realised that I have to stop as hard as I could.. for some reason.. I am not sure how to go about "EMEGENCY STOP", as I knew as I just step on the break as hard as I could.. and BANG!, I ramped a car at around 20Km/h, that car (wira) couldn't help but to ramp the other car in front.
So, three cars pulled to the roadside and started talking.. and I found out that it was due to a taxi in front, who had stopped to let passenger off. Anyway, the other two drivers wanted me to pay them damage, so i spent around RM600 for two cars. It was really just a slight accident, but I did learnt something.
1. Never drive to close to any cars, coz according to Rick, as long as you ramp anyone from behind, you are at fault no matter what reasons. Anyone could stop at any place due to car breakdown or emotional breakdown. and yup...by logic, the taxi should be responsible because no one would ever expect any car to stop like that... but anyway, it is still my fault.
2. Always have backup in life... Just like that I need to spend like RM600, I dont want to waste my time argue about anything.. As long as I feel guitly, I would pay anyway. So I guess, financial backup is essential for anyone who is not rich. And you just wouldn't know it until like me..BANG! wake up brother...you need financial backup.
I also realised that I had been a hero as there were fleets of cars behind me, all were bumper to bumper... had I been not stopping smoothly, probably some cars at the back would have ramped at each other and I might not need to pay for anything...
so despite being hero and reminded of life's backup choices, I also get a chance to win a lottery price for my car plate.. 6204. go buy it guys, it might kena. The reason I feel confident because my car plate was kind of damage, my front bumper was just a bit dislocated.. and discoloured as well.
So, three cars pulled to the roadside and started talking.. and I found out that it was due to a taxi in front, who had stopped to let passenger off. Anyway, the other two drivers wanted me to pay them damage, so i spent around RM600 for two cars. It was really just a slight accident, but I did learnt something.
1. Never drive to close to any cars, coz according to Rick, as long as you ramp anyone from behind, you are at fault no matter what reasons. Anyone could stop at any place due to car breakdown or emotional breakdown. and yup...by logic, the taxi should be responsible because no one would ever expect any car to stop like that... but anyway, it is still my fault.
2. Always have backup in life... Just like that I need to spend like RM600, I dont want to waste my time argue about anything.. As long as I feel guitly, I would pay anyway. So I guess, financial backup is essential for anyone who is not rich. And you just wouldn't know it until like me..BANG! wake up brother...you need financial backup.
I also realised that I had been a hero as there were fleets of cars behind me, all were bumper to bumper... had I been not stopping smoothly, probably some cars at the back would have ramped at each other and I might not need to pay for anything...
so despite being hero and reminded of life's backup choices, I also get a chance to win a lottery price for my car plate.. 6204. go buy it guys, it might kena. The reason I feel confident because my car plate was kind of damage, my front bumper was just a bit dislocated.. and discoloured as well.
Thursday, January 06, 2005
Chinese discriminated in Aceh
I heard some problem with our donation, I heard in aceh (indonesia) chinese ppl line up for food, but they don't get their share, they have to buy it, while the malays is for free.
I don't know where they come from, But I think these ppl is still uncivilised. So its like our chinese donation of food & money are for nothing.
This was told by peoples who have come to medan stay in the temple, now its up to 3000 ppl in the temple, most of them are chinese, Now we only donate to temple, because there is the only place where these chinese get their donation of food and clothes.So if you want to donate, don't donate to the church or temple.Peace......
One of the reason I blog is also to keep archive of gossip and things circulated around the Internet, especially to my mail box... But dont believe everything you see... don't be gullible okay..
but for the comment I received from Yudywanto, who is living in Medan, I think there is a reason to believe that Tsunami is a punishment to Aceh because last time they bully chinese indonesian...
I don't know where they come from, But I think these ppl is still uncivilised. So its like our chinese donation of food & money are for nothing.
This was told by peoples who have come to medan stay in the temple, now its up to 3000 ppl in the temple, most of them are chinese, Now we only donate to temple, because there is the only place where these chinese get their donation of food and clothes.So if you want to donate, don't donate to the church or temple.Peace......
One of the reason I blog is also to keep archive of gossip and things circulated around the Internet, especially to my mail box... But dont believe everything you see... don't be gullible okay..
but for the comment I received from Yudywanto, who is living in Medan, I think there is a reason to believe that Tsunami is a punishment to Aceh because last time they bully chinese indonesian...
Is the world coming to an end - India Time
NEW DELHI: Top astrologers in the country are hinting that the tsunamistrike might indeed be a step towards Nostradamus' prediction - End ofthe world in 2010.
Minutes after panic gripped southern India following warnings of a freshtsunami strike on Thursday, one of India's top astrologers, Kewal AnandJoshi, warned: "It's not over yet.""We (a group of astrologers) are currently diagnosing the calamity.There's going to be another major strike in June 2005, somewhere in theworld.
It will continue in 2006 and even in 2007 taking millions of lives,"Joshi almost assured."And we have reason to believe, besides tsunami strikes, there'll be aseries of natural catastrophes which could destroy parts of the world,"he added.
Toll in Saturday's tsunami-strike has already reached 80,000 of which13,500 were killed in India alone. Experts feel the total count "will riseto 1lakh", making this one of the most catastrophic natural disaster to havestruck the world ever.
Delhi-based Tarot Card reader, Pinki Vaid, took time to make some senseout of this through her cards. "It's a sign from God," she says."He wants us to know that materialism means nothing if compared to thelives around us. He's giving us a sign that we must learn fast or elsewe'llbe the cause of our own destruction.""Our destiny is in our own hands now," Pinki says.She adds, "If we want, we can change Nostradamus' prediction.
But we first need to learn that working in a multi-national company or making a lot of money is not what was meant to be our nature of existence.
"Pinki's colleague, Deepak, however, analyses the tsunami strike a littledifferently."Since 1999, humans started becoming a lot more spiritual. But thenthereare still a lot more people who are not. So there's a big clash. Thetransmutation of positive and negative energies was the cause of thisstrike. It's the planet Earth's way of reacting to humans," he explains."If we hope to survive, we need to erase negative energies and transformthem into positive energies. Else, chaos is just round the corner," he said.
Personally, I find this fowarded message a bit interesting in a sense that the facts are quite practical.. many people did become more spiritual recently...even in the west. But he uses multi national company to represent wealth means that the author is somehow working for a MNC or just hoping to work for one.Monday, January 03, 2005
tsunami again...
happy new year guys..
we are back to tsunami again.. the death toll increases to 155k; 0.00258% of world population and it seems to have kill people around the world.
My mother just got back from Singapore and she told me over the last one week, Singaporean expressed great alerts on the disaster to such extent that everybody stay home to watch the news coverage and some even screamed at the horrible site seen. It is also learned that Singaporean are extremely generous at donations. As well as Hong Kong, where yesterday nite, as broadcasted by Astro, singers and movie stars gathered to pledge for donations. To me, I understand their gratitude, it also expressed fear in them because both are islander country and similiar disaster hitting them would simply means disaster.
Malaysian have been advised by each other for not eating sea food due to the fact that there has been huge changes to the geographical aspect of the sea, where it is believed that sea creatures have been eating volcanic-substances which is bad for our health. They said we shouldn't be eating sea food for the next one year.
To me, I am not sure whether this disaster is far from over or not, but I believe that nobody knows the extend of the side effect. But I do have one concern is that should there is another earth quake and it just so happened to knock off sea cables for Internet, which resulted in cutting off of major communications line and there you go, it will really be a big problem. Just imagine there is no communication at all between countries.
we are back to tsunami again.. the death toll increases to 155k; 0.00258% of world population and it seems to have kill people around the world.
My mother just got back from Singapore and she told me over the last one week, Singaporean expressed great alerts on the disaster to such extent that everybody stay home to watch the news coverage and some even screamed at the horrible site seen. It is also learned that Singaporean are extremely generous at donations. As well as Hong Kong, where yesterday nite, as broadcasted by Astro, singers and movie stars gathered to pledge for donations. To me, I understand their gratitude, it also expressed fear in them because both are islander country and similiar disaster hitting them would simply means disaster.
Malaysian have been advised by each other for not eating sea food due to the fact that there has been huge changes to the geographical aspect of the sea, where it is believed that sea creatures have been eating volcanic-substances which is bad for our health. They said we shouldn't be eating sea food for the next one year.
To me, I am not sure whether this disaster is far from over or not, but I believe that nobody knows the extend of the side effect. But I do have one concern is that should there is another earth quake and it just so happened to knock off sea cables for Internet, which resulted in cutting off of major communications line and there you go, it will really be a big problem. Just imagine there is no communication at all between countries.
Saturday, January 01, 2005
Positive market outlook for 2005
Positive market outlook for 2005
based on the article above, i dont really understand where they are coming from, even though ever sentences make sense. But the thing I notice about these interviewee were:
1. They are knowlegable enough.
2. Everything is based on researched facts and assumed experience.
3. There is no conclusion. Everything questions are answered with information which close no door. In one instance, star panel commented on CIMB representative for being imbalanced in terms of its prediction for KLCI and its suggestion for a bullish market. He reiterated by saying:
"Okay, that is a pure, fundamental target based on EPS (earnings per share) growth and on PE valuation. As we know, the market can over-shoot the valuations. The momentum can drive it higher." This is just an opened answer.
Risks:
1. Weakening US Dollar - many financial system cannot withstand sudden drop in US Dollar. (I think becoz calculations are based on USD)
2.Terrorist attack.
3. China - its economy is slowing down.
One thing that i learned is that the big players are expected to be foreign fund managers. The fund managers rely on investment banker for money is thus is affected by high interest rate.
The one conclusion they gave was that KLCI will hit 1000 benchmark for the first quarter of 2005. and drop again in the second quarter because of rising interest rate.
One thing about these people (fund managers), they seem to have a lot of information.. and i hate reading it because no conclusion one.. unless they tell you buy this one sell that one.. wait ... they are great lecturers and story tellers. Maybe they know too much and just don't know where to start. For this kind of people, we need to give them specific questions, not "what do you think of the outlook of 2005?"
Bullish + china + interest rates + liquidity + US dollar + GDP + momentum + risks = answer.
if there is any stock that has the word "china"; chinadoll, chinalens,chinaTat, the demand will increase.
based on the article above, i dont really understand where they are coming from, even though ever sentences make sense. But the thing I notice about these interviewee were:
1. They are knowlegable enough.
2. Everything is based on researched facts and assumed experience.
3. There is no conclusion. Everything questions are answered with information which close no door. In one instance, star panel commented on CIMB representative for being imbalanced in terms of its prediction for KLCI and its suggestion for a bullish market. He reiterated by saying:
"Okay, that is a pure, fundamental target based on EPS (earnings per share) growth and on PE valuation. As we know, the market can over-shoot the valuations. The momentum can drive it higher." This is just an opened answer.
Risks:
1. Weakening US Dollar - many financial system cannot withstand sudden drop in US Dollar. (I think becoz calculations are based on USD)
2.Terrorist attack.
3. China - its economy is slowing down.
One thing that i learned is that the big players are expected to be foreign fund managers. The fund managers rely on investment banker for money is thus is affected by high interest rate.
The one conclusion they gave was that KLCI will hit 1000 benchmark for the first quarter of 2005. and drop again in the second quarter because of rising interest rate.
One thing about these people (fund managers), they seem to have a lot of information.. and i hate reading it because no conclusion one.. unless they tell you buy this one sell that one.. wait ... they are great lecturers and story tellers. Maybe they know too much and just don't know where to start. For this kind of people, we need to give them specific questions, not "what do you think of the outlook of 2005?"
Bullish + china + interest rates + liquidity + US dollar + GDP + momentum + risks = answer.
if there is any stock that has the word "china"; chinadoll, chinalens,chinaTat, the demand will increase.
Stocks to year 2005
oh.. let's take a break from tsunami and focus on something practical here... which we are talking market prospect for the year 2005 ..
I am not a financial guy, so I would take things without prior-view. Means if i tell you the forecast GDP for next year is 5% to 5.5%, without the picture of what was happening (2004 GDP) 5% is pretty small value, compare to a 100%. But of course this is really childish, as in maybe the GDP value is always around this margin. So for this time, I would remember that our forecast GDP for 2005 is 5% to 5.5%.
but what i did learn from the following article are:
Stocks to watch next year
1. How finance gig select good stock; selection criteria ?
Their intelligence called it the "key area":
1a. has Growth
1b. has Divident
1c. has Undemanding valuation. - this will affect the P/E
2. There is another thing call price-earning(P/E) ratio which is technically price/earning (price over earning).Which would affect EPF(Earning per share)
The lower the better the stock is.
Digi P/E is 10 times.
Maxis P/E is 14 times.
Shell P/E is 4 or 5 times.
3. How they(CIMB) forecast Shell's price ?
By looking at the margin of the main activities - refinery; which has a growing margin.
4. How they(CIMB) forecast Digi price ?
Based on the following conclusion:
4a. The company(Digi) has done well in terms of marketing and re-branding. It has been able to find a niche in a very competitive mobile business against two giants, Maxis and Celcom.
4b. "DiGi is very good at introducing new products. Its micro-reload and all those things enable it to reposition itself in the consumer's mind. The only thing it lacks is network coverage, which is not as good as the others." This statement actually means Digi's marketing people are harder worker compared to Celcom and Maxis due to the fact that Celcom and Maxis has better coverage than Digi, and because of this it is understandable that Digi is the smallest among the three and thus still a underdog. In other works, credit is given for hardwork and I am just wondering how they assume this fact ?
Since I am in the same industry currently, the only way they can find out is through evaluation of media (advertising) coverage in the public. Digi has new services (new implementation) every few months.. and Celcom and Maxis would follow suit later. Of course to give credits mainly to the marketing department is not fair because the technical department must be competent enough to make allocation to cater the changes. In conclusion, CIMB thinks Digi has more activities than Celcom and Maxis and thus have better growth lor. Therefore, in the future, when I have a company, I must inform the public relation department to put up a show that my company has a lot of activities.
4c. It(Digi) has started to pay dividends as well.
5. They say KLCC property's stock is undervalued .. meaning no demand. They quoted the reason for people don't understand the business model and cash flow. So the "people" here actually meant player .. big player in the share trading market. Not the community at large who is like me, doesn't know much about finance. So the big player dont know how KLCC property makes money and so don't actually but the share.. they think KLCC Property is in the business of REIT (Real estate Investment Trust). So, this is pretty risky because if even if KLCC Property is making money but REIT is actually slowing down, people wouldn't want to buy the share. Now I finally understand that it is important to have good public relation and media coverage because let say you have a company called "AROJAK" which is selling Rojak. ANd you somehow find a way to be part of the news and get to tell everybody that you are selling Rojak. Then, when the government announced that Rojak can cure cancer, the big player will buy the stock. So i guess you company name also important... because if you are having a name like smelAss and you are doing the Rojak business, people actually think you are in the disinfectant business.
wow what a long blog... haven't finish..
the other panels seems having different opinions.
so CIMB chooses, Digi, Maxis, KLCC Property, Shell.
CIF of Allianze insurance picks mostly pipes manufacturer.
and manufacturer has other definitions to be familiar with.
1. Inventory profits.
2. Operations profits
and how this CIF chooses the favourite stock is based simple criteria:
1. Expansion (plants, countries)
2. New ventures
3. Technology investment - constant upgrade in the machine and and system. NOw i understand why people do upgrade also want to advertise in the newspaper.
4. Product quality
5. Published business deal.
now Kenanga pula picks the following:
1. Proton
2. Pos Malaysia
3. Affin Holding.
4. Southern Bank.
5. Plus expressway.
CIO of pacific mutual fund.
1. Redtone
2. Yi-Lai - Tile marker.
3. Tan Choong
4. Silver Bird - Bread market.
5. Genting bhd
So how do people pick stock for service industry ?
1. They answer customer service phone call during public holidays.
2. They sleep when people dont need them. Because if people find out that they don't sleep, people are scared that this might affect the productivity and thus won't buy the share.
They mentioned this term "ringgit-peg" few times and attributed Sin Chew to be able to cut cost from it.
They did mentioned Sime Darby twice, as well as Hiap Teck and Whitehouse.
They also attributed liquidity to "selling" of shares.
So, despite its educational contents for myself, I think this article is also another from of marketing the shares for their clients.
I am not a financial guy, so I would take things without prior-view. Means if i tell you the forecast GDP for next year is 5% to 5.5%, without the picture of what was happening (2004 GDP) 5% is pretty small value, compare to a 100%. But of course this is really childish, as in maybe the GDP value is always around this margin. So for this time, I would remember that our forecast GDP for 2005 is 5% to 5.5%.
but what i did learn from the following article are:
Stocks to watch next year
1. How finance gig select good stock; selection criteria ?
Their intelligence called it the "key area":
1a. has Growth
1b. has Divident
1c. has Undemanding valuation. - this will affect the P/E
2. There is another thing call price-earning(P/E) ratio which is technically price/earning (price over earning).Which would affect EPF(Earning per share)
The lower the better the stock is.
Digi P/E is 10 times.
Maxis P/E is 14 times.
Shell P/E is 4 or 5 times.
3. How they(CIMB) forecast Shell's price ?
By looking at the margin of the main activities - refinery; which has a growing margin.
4. How they(CIMB) forecast Digi price ?
Based on the following conclusion:
4a. The company(Digi) has done well in terms of marketing and re-branding. It has been able to find a niche in a very competitive mobile business against two giants, Maxis and Celcom.
4b. "DiGi is very good at introducing new products. Its micro-reload and all those things enable it to reposition itself in the consumer's mind. The only thing it lacks is network coverage, which is not as good as the others." This statement actually means Digi's marketing people are harder worker compared to Celcom and Maxis due to the fact that Celcom and Maxis has better coverage than Digi, and because of this it is understandable that Digi is the smallest among the three and thus still a underdog. In other works, credit is given for hardwork and I am just wondering how they assume this fact ?
Since I am in the same industry currently, the only way they can find out is through evaluation of media (advertising) coverage in the public. Digi has new services (new implementation) every few months.. and Celcom and Maxis would follow suit later. Of course to give credits mainly to the marketing department is not fair because the technical department must be competent enough to make allocation to cater the changes. In conclusion, CIMB thinks Digi has more activities than Celcom and Maxis and thus have better growth lor. Therefore, in the future, when I have a company, I must inform the public relation department to put up a show that my company has a lot of activities.
4c. It(Digi) has started to pay dividends as well.
5. They say KLCC property's stock is undervalued .. meaning no demand. They quoted the reason for people don't understand the business model and cash flow. So the "people" here actually meant player .. big player in the share trading market. Not the community at large who is like me, doesn't know much about finance. So the big player dont know how KLCC property makes money and so don't actually but the share.. they think KLCC Property is in the business of REIT (Real estate Investment Trust). So, this is pretty risky because if even if KLCC Property is making money but REIT is actually slowing down, people wouldn't want to buy the share. Now I finally understand that it is important to have good public relation and media coverage because let say you have a company called "AROJAK" which is selling Rojak. ANd you somehow find a way to be part of the news and get to tell everybody that you are selling Rojak. Then, when the government announced that Rojak can cure cancer, the big player will buy the stock. So i guess you company name also important... because if you are having a name like smelAss and you are doing the Rojak business, people actually think you are in the disinfectant business.
wow what a long blog... haven't finish..
the other panels seems having different opinions.
so CIMB chooses, Digi, Maxis, KLCC Property, Shell.
CIF of Allianze insurance picks mostly pipes manufacturer.
and manufacturer has other definitions to be familiar with.
1. Inventory profits.
2. Operations profits
and how this CIF chooses the favourite stock is based simple criteria:
1. Expansion (plants, countries)
2. New ventures
3. Technology investment - constant upgrade in the machine and and system. NOw i understand why people do upgrade also want to advertise in the newspaper.
4. Product quality
5. Published business deal.
now Kenanga pula picks the following:
1. Proton
2. Pos Malaysia
3. Affin Holding.
4. Southern Bank.
5. Plus expressway.
CIO of pacific mutual fund.
1. Redtone
2. Yi-Lai - Tile marker.
3. Tan Choong
4. Silver Bird - Bread market.
5. Genting bhd
So how do people pick stock for service industry ?
1. They answer customer service phone call during public holidays.
2. They sleep when people dont need them. Because if people find out that they don't sleep, people are scared that this might affect the productivity and thus won't buy the share.
They mentioned this term "ringgit-peg" few times and attributed Sin Chew to be able to cut cost from it.
They did mentioned Sime Darby twice, as well as Hiap Teck and Whitehouse.
They also attributed liquidity to "selling" of shares.
So, despite its educational contents for myself, I think this article is also another from of marketing the shares for their clients.
Mind your language - Banished Words List :: 2005
According to the following web site, there are 22 words being considered "bad english" by Lake Superior State University.
1. BLUE STATES/RED STATES
2. FLIP FLOP/FLIP FLOPPER/FLIP FLOPPING
3. BATTLEGROUND STATE
4. “… AND I APPROVE THIS MESSAGE”
5. POCKETS OF RESISTANCE
6. IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE
7. ENEMY COMBATANT
8. CARBS
9. YOU’RE FIRED!
10. ÜBER
11. ‘IZZLE’ – SPEAK
12. WARDROBE MALFUNCTION
13. BLOG
14. WEBINAR
15. ZERO PERCENT APR FINANCING
16. SAFE AND EFFECTIVE
17. ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION
18. JOURNEY
19. BODY WASH
20. SALE EVENT
21. ALL NEW
22. AND MORE!
to find out why, please click on:
Banished Words List :: 2005
to me it is pretty meaningless argument.. blog is derieved from weBLOG. these 22 words aim at putting creativity to the language of English, to make them more expressive and lively. Prehaps the English(U.K) wouldn't like it, but American wise, it will not be a problem for acceptance.
one classic is ICQ; which essentially means "I Seek you.." and its geniusity gives rise to other descendent such as :
1. Maybank2u
2. 5657 --> 我来我去
3. AND MORE!
1. BLUE STATES/RED STATES
2. FLIP FLOP/FLIP FLOPPER/FLIP FLOPPING
3. BATTLEGROUND STATE
4. “… AND I APPROVE THIS MESSAGE”
5. POCKETS OF RESISTANCE
6. IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE
7. ENEMY COMBATANT
8. CARBS
9. YOU’RE FIRED!
10. ÜBER
11. ‘IZZLE’ – SPEAK
12. WARDROBE MALFUNCTION
13. BLOG
14. WEBINAR
15. ZERO PERCENT APR FINANCING
16. SAFE AND EFFECTIVE
17. ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION
18. JOURNEY
19. BODY WASH
20. SALE EVENT
21. ALL NEW
22. AND MORE!
to find out why, please click on:
Banished Words List :: 2005
to me it is pretty meaningless argument.. blog is derieved from weBLOG. these 22 words aim at putting creativity to the language of English, to make them more expressive and lively. Prehaps the English(U.K) wouldn't like it, but American wise, it will not be a problem for acceptance.
one classic is ICQ; which essentially means "I Seek you.." and its geniusity gives rise to other descendent such as :
1. Maybank2u
2. 5657 --> 我来我去
3. AND MORE!
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